A shift in spending away from goods could hit companies already struggling to secure supplies. Prior to the pandemic, e-commerce made it seem like everything was right at our doorstep. This WSJ documentary takes viewers on the monthslong, 14,000-mile journey of a typical consumer good from factory to front door to reveal how the process is far more complex, and vulnerable, than many of us imagined.
Supply-chain problems are a bear, but they are better than the alternative of waning demand. The worry for some manufacturers has to be that the latter might become a live concern in the months ahead.
The Institute for Supply Management on Monday said that its index of manufacturing activity slipped to 55.4 in April from March’s 57.1. That is still solidly above 50—the dividing line between growth and contraction—but marked the lowest level since July 2020. Moreover, the index got a boost in April from a slowdown in supplier deliveries, which is usually a positive sign for manufacturing, but in the context of ongoing supply-chain issues counts a negative.
The Prices Index registered 84.6 percent, down 2.5 percentage points compared to the March figure of 87.1 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 56 percent, 4 percentage points lower than the March reading of 60 percent. The Employment Index figure of 50.9 percent is 5.4 percentage points lower than the 56.3 percent recorded in March. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 67.2 percent, an increase of 1.8 percentage points compared to the March figure of 65.4 percent. The Inventories Index registered 51.6 percent, 3.9 percentage points lower than the March reading of 55.5 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 52.7 percent is down 0.5 percentage point compared to March’s figure of 53.2 percent. The Imports Index registered 51.4 percent, a 0.4-percentage point decrease from the March reading of 51.8 percent.
Members of the Institute for Supply Management analyst panel continue to view supply chain and pricing issues as their biggest concerns, while panel sentiment remained highly optimistic regarding demand, but the three positive comments on growth are cautious and fell from March's 6-to-1 ratio.
With the pandemic there has not been the collapse of international trade hypothesized by many, but with the war the risk is again looming.
