The AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023 finds that, despite progress in policies and legislation around climate mitigation since the previous such report in 2014, it's "likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century". Limiting warming to "well below 2°C", by 2030, as per the Paris Agreement targets, will be hard to achieve, but avoiding 1.5°C is still possible.
The new report, written by 39 scientists, is separated into three sections arranged by timeframes: Current Status and Trends looks back through history to the present day; Long-term Climate and Development Futures projects scenarios to 2100 and beyond; and Near-term Responses in a Changing Climate looks at current international policy timeframes between now and the 2030s.
Here are some of the main findings:
- Human-caused climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe – with widespread loss and damage to both nature and people.
- GHG emissions will lead to increasing global warming in the near term, and it's likely this will reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2035.
- We are currently at around 1.1°C of warming and current climate policies are projected to increase global warming by 3.2°C by 2100.
- The IPCC has "very high confidence" that the risks and adverse impacts from climate change will escalate with increasing global warming.
- To keep within the 1.5°C limit, emissions need to be reduced by at least 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, and at least 60% by 2035. This is the decisive decade to make that happen.
- Losses and damages will disproportionately affect the poorest and most vulnerable populations, particularly those in Africa and least-developed countries, creating more poverty.
- Prioritizing equity, social justice, inclusion and just transition processes would enable ambitious climate mitigation actions and climate-resilient development.
- Tracked climate finance for mitigation falls short of the levels needed to limit warming to below 2°C or to 1.5°C across all sectors and regions.
- Public and private finance flows for fossil fuels are still greater than those for climate adaptation and mitigation.
- Among other measures to ensure energy systems are net-zero CO2 emitters, we need a "substantial reduction in overall fossil fuel use, minimal use of unabated fossil fuels, and use of carbon capture and storage in the remaining fossil fuel systems; energy conservation and efficiency; and greater integration across the energy system".
