Footwear production is expected to be between 820 million and 828 million pairs this year. The results will be driven by exports, which are expected to close 2022 with a growth of 8.4% to 10.2% compared to 2021 (between 134 and 136 million pairs). The screenings were announced at the Analysis of Scenarios, a digital event of Abicalçados. The Market Intelligence report by Priscila Linck and Marcos Lélis is available at the link on Youtube.
According to the analysis, after a production growth of 9.8% throughout 2021, compared to 2020, the footwear sector will continue to recover throughout 2022, but is expected to remain below the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. Last year ended with a production of about 10 % less than in 2019. For 2022, while growing on an optimistic basis compared to 2021 (+2.7%), we will remain about 8% below pre-pandemic levels", commented the analysts and add: "The domestic market, which represents 85% of the sector's sales, continues with a lower dynamic than the growth of exports, reflecting the level of employment and the increase in inflation, which reduces disposable income for consumption".
After creating 27,000 jobs in the last year, the Brazilian footwear sector, which created another 13,000 in the first two months of 2022, is expected to end the year with a positive balance in job creation. According to an analysis by Abicalçados, the footwear sector is expected to end the year with growth of between 1.3% and 5.3% in the number of jobs, with more than 270,000 people employed in the business across Brazil.
Abicalçados' sectoral projections are realized through the analysis of the growth prospects of Brazilian and US GDP - the main destination of footwear exports - and exchange rate trends. Lélis pointed out that Brazil's GDP, which grew by 4.6% last year, has been decelerating since the beginning of the year. "Brazil seems to have a constraint on growth, based mainly on low public investment, rising inequality and currently double-digit inflation," the economist pointed out, noting that, for 2022, the forecast is for GDP growth of just 0.5%. "Low domestic growth is also expected to have a negative impact on the Brazilian footwear sector throughout the year," he says.
Abicalçados also published a survey conducted with companies in the footwear sector, which highlighted the main difficulties encountered in the last year and the expected impacts for 2022. The main difficulty highlighted in 2021 and which will be repeated in 2022, is the increase in the costs of raw materials. In second place is logistics. In third place, for the current year, will be the scarcity of available labour, a problem that was much less relevant in 2021.
